Is London becoming a ‘child-free’ city? A question many policymakers are asking. The reality is complicated.

The number of families are not declining – but where children are growing up has changed. As costs force families out of inner London, outer London boroughs and public services are absorbing the pressure of this rapid growth. This movement is creating growing inequalities in how children grow up in the capital.

Overall, the number of families in London has risen in the past twenty years.  In 2021, there were 872,911 households with children in London. By 2021, this had risen to 1,071,106, an increase of almost a quarter (23%).

Regeneration and rising property prices have, however, pushed families to the edges of the city. Inner London has seen a decline in the number of families as a share of their population. Outer London, meanwhile, is growing fast. In Barking and Dagenham, nearly half of all households now have dependent children.

Decline in birth rates and rising house prices are at the heart of this demographic change. House prices in London are double the English average. In our most expensive borough, Londoners are spending 74.3% of their income on rent. Childcare costs are the highest in the country, costing £319 a week in inner London and £274 in outer London. Families are being priced out of the neighbourhoods they once called home.

Inequality is rising as a consequence. This creates a divergent experience of childhood in the city. Families are over-represented in deprived neighbourhoods, where high streets are run-down and local leisure options are limited.

Families are also more likely to rely on social housing. As the availability of social housing decreases (with waiting lists stretching decades in some boroughs), it’s families who are disproportionately facing homelessness and being placed in temporary accommodation. Almost a third (31%) of London’s households have children, yet two thirds (66%) of households in temporary accommodation in the capital have dependent children. Insecure housing is becoming the new normal for too many families in the capital.

Public services are struggling to keep up with where families live. Inner London schools are seeing falling enrolment. This reduces funding, causing staff cuts, narrowing curriculums and resulting in 90 school closures or mergers over the past five years.

Some outer London schools are facing the opposite challenge – rising demand. Seven outer London boroughs expect rising reception demand. Maternity services in boroughs like Havering are suddenly dealing with an influx of younger people, without the staff to match.

The result is a deepening inequality between London’s families with children. Across the capital, neighbourhoods are more polarised. Public services are struggling to match-up to the needs of local populations. And resourcing is complex to navigate year-on-year.

This report provides new data analysis and fresh insights on the ‘child-free’ inner London debate. It shows how this movement of families is reshaping London – its neighbourhoods, its public services, and, most importantly, family life itself.