Headroom or high water: the challenge of the next Spending Review

Speakers:

• Paul Johnson, Director, Institute for Fiscal Studies
• Rt Hon Baroness Nicky Morgan, former Secretary of State for Education and former Chair of the Treasury Select Committee
• Martin Wolf, Chief Economics Commentator, Financial Times

Whoever wins on July 4th will inherit a government debt to GDP ratio of almost 100%, the highest sustained tax burden since World War II, and implausibly tight departmental spending envelopes. At the same time, the public will expect the new administration to make speedy progress in tackling the backlogs and improving public services, while an increasingly unstable geopolitical landscape will continue to spotlight our diminished defence capabilities.  

The current Spending Review settlement will end early next year, meaning the new government will have to rapidly undertake a SR process to determine budgets for at least the next financial year. The two main parties have committed to a triple lock on key taxes, and a set of fiscal rules which limit borrowing, leaving little room for manoeuvre. What, therefore, might the next SR look like? What options are there to redirect spending, boost productivity, or cut services? Where might additional revenue come from if not from income tax, national insurance and VAT? How might private capital could be crowded in?  

Re:State was delighted to host the panel event with Paul Johnson, Director, Institute for Fiscal Studies, Rt Hon Baroness Nicky Morgan, former Secretary of State for Education and former Chair of the Treasury Select Committee, and Martin Wolf, Chief Economics Commentator, Financial Times, to discuss these questions and to explore the fiscal inheritance of the incoming government, and what the next Spending Review could look like.