Autumn Budget: the good, the bad, and the ugly

Panellists:

• Richard Hughes, Chair, Office for Budget Responsibility
• Duncan Robinson, Bagehot Columnist & Political Editor, The Economist
• Sonia Sodha, Chief Lead Writer, The Observer

On Budget day, Chancellor Rachel Reeves will have the unenviable task of making the public finances add up, while simultaneously boosting growth and saving public services – she’ll need more that a rabbit.

UK debt now stands at 100 per cent of GDP and the latest OBR data shows her ‘fiscal headroom’ has been squeezed by higher than predicted spending. Stronger than expected growth for the first half of 2024 provided a crack of light, but the Chancellor has already told us she has a substantial black hole to fill.

Will Labour U-turn on their pledge not to raise income tax, national insurance, and VAT? Or will we see the first moves to increase tax on wealth? Might the fiscal rules be flexible? Certainly, if more money is not injected into departmental settlements this will look an awful lot like an austerity Budget.

Re:State was delighted to host this panel event the day after the Budget to reflect on its content. As ever, we’ll discussed the good, the bad and the ugly.